Ten years after the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s first electoral victory, the negative economic, social, and political consequences of those decisions have largely been confirmed by reality. It was not the end of the world, of course, and both the architects of Brexit, and Trump himself, were eventually punished at the ballot box, with the victories of Starmer and Biden.
Yet Trump returned to power in 2024 with an even larger electoral mandate, while Starmer has proven to be a weak leader who, according to current polls, would likely lose to the most extreme and xenophobic Brexit supporters if an election were held today. This points to a vicious circle of populism. Populists can be defeated, but the damage they leave behind is often so profound that their successors would need almost superhuman abilities to govern successfully. When they fail to meet these expectations, populists regain support, sometimes in even more radical forms.
This does not mean that there is a clear majority in favor of far-right populism. Rather, there is considerable volatility in the electorate as a whole, which often obscures the stable values and preferences of different segments of society. Depending on the moment or the place, for example, we see headlines claiming that young people are becoming more far-right, Catholic, or socialist (The Economist, for example, appears alarmed about the rise of Gen Z socialism).
More likely, young voters are as diverse as any other demographic group, and perhaps even more volatile than most. Which segments become politically mobilized, and which values solidify over time, depend in part on the influences they are exposed to.
This is where what political scientist Jan-Werner Müller calls retail politics may matter. In a recent podcast, he argued that the opposition’s success in Hungary was driven by two key factors: public dissatisfaction with Orbán’s corruption and effective politics on the ground. Going from place to place, talking to people, maintaining a presence in every neighborhood, and building genuine roots in every municipality still matter. The way these activities are organized is changing—and will continue to change—as technology and culture evolve. But they still matter.
Retail politics should be part of a broader strategy—alongside many other initiatives—to break the vicious circle of populism.
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