"The analysis of the bounded rationality of agents involved in
policy-making has recently enriched the literature on behavioral economics
(see review in Section 2 below). Indeed, it would be an inconsistency to assume
that agents behave with bounded rationality in a market context,
but that they are perfectly rational when they intervene in the design and
choice of collective solutions.
In this article, I apply this basic insight to a well-known problem in
the literature on regulation: the time inconsistency of regulation in the face
of sunk investments, and the associated potential solution of delegating into
an independent regulator. This problem has been analyzed theoretically and empirically,
and is recognized to shed light on public intervention in infrastructure
industries such as transport, energy or telecommunications. In their classic book on regulatory reform in
the UK, Armstrong et al. (1994) argued that the task of regulators in these
industries would be easy except for the presence of asymmetric information,
potential regulatory capture and commitment problems. The recent literature
suggests a fourth source of difficulty (which is complementary of the others):
the behavioural biases of regulators.
There is a parallelism in the evolution from welfare economics to
political economy and the evolution from behavioral economics to behavioral
political economy. Traditional welfare economics was criticized by the Public
Choice School because of the asymmetry between assuming self-interested market
agents and benevolent policy-makers. However, this school broadly interpreted
this asymmetry as providing a rationale for reducing to the minimum public
intervention (Stern, 2010). A more agnostic synthesis was provided by the more
general concept of political economy, where all agents have similar motivations
but there is no bias in favour or against public intervention: quite generally,
the assumption of self-interested agents changes, but does not necessarily
eliminate, public intervention. It is precisely from political economy models
that the suggestion to alleviate time inconsistency in policy with delegation
emerged. In an analogous asymmetry, early analysis of public policy using
behavioral insights assumed that bounded rationality only affected agents
operating in market contexts, but not perfectly rational policy makers who
could supposedly nudge the former into behaving in ways that were good for
their long run selves (see among others Sunstein, 2006, Thaler and Sunstein,
2008, Thaler, 2015, and their critics such as Kahan et al., 2006). Some of the critics
have been right in highlighting this asymmetry, but getting close to the risk
of arguing that assuming boundedly rational policy-makers would justify
removing public intervention in many contexts. Again, a more agnostic
behavioral political economy would assume similar at least potential degrees of
bounded rationality in all agents, which would most probably modify public
intervention, without necessarily eliminating it (in some cases it might, in
others it might increase the need for some collective intervention; in many
cases, I conjecture that it would modify the intervention)."
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